Obama's obvious inability to garner "white working class voters", which has already decimated his chances in black-majority states like Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, and Maine, is also making it impossible for him to win traditional battleground states like...
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Rasmussen. 5/21. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30 results)
Obama (D) 48 (41)
McCain (R) 43 (51)
That's a 15-point swing as the party begins to come together again. Some Clinton supporters may still be in the denial, anger, and bargaining stages of grief, but in states with early contests, people appear to be moving into general election mode.
In this poll, Obama gets 72 percent of the Democratic vote. Still low, of course, but better than the 68 percent he got a month ago. And while a month ago Obama lost the female vote 49-41, he won it 46-44 this month.
Also interestingly, while last month he lost the independent vote 51-43, he won it 51-40, which suggests that McCain is losing some of his appeal with his supposedly strongest constituency (after the press, that is).
Finally, Obama leads with those who make less than $20K a year (52-27), $20-40K (50-44), $60-75K (50-40), and $75-100K (55-40). McCain leads among those who make $40-60K (48-45) and over $100K (46-44). His problems with working class whites is a real, ongoing concern.
OHIO
SurveyUSA. 5/16-18. Likely voters. MoE 4.1% (4/11-13 results)
McCain (R) 39 (47)
Obama (D) 48 (45)
Another big swing in Obama's direction, to the tune of 11 points in five weeks. This poll also puts Obama in the lead in Ohio in the Pollster.com composite. Like in New Hampshire, Obama turned a narrow 46-44 lead among women into a 50-37 one. Similarly, a 65-24 deficit among Democrats is now 73-14. And what about those Ohio whites that have already doomed Obama? They broke for McCain at a 52-39 clip last month. This month, Obama wins them 45-41.
Can you see how stupid this discussion has been about "states Clinton wins" and the "working class whites" and "uniting the party with Clinton as veep" and all that other crap? If Republicans can unite behind McCain (and they have) given the real ideological divisions in their party, we can heal unite behind Obama, and we are.
The numbers are clear, as Obama systemically consolidates the Democratic vote, his numbers rise everywhere.
Let's look at some recent polling showing this trend:
Colorado:
SUSA:
3/17: 46 McCain, 46 Obama
5/19: 42 McCain, 48 Obama
Oregon:
Rasmussen:
3/26: 42 McCain, 48 Obama
5/7: 38 McCain, 52 Obama
Pennsylvania:
SUSA:
2/26-28: 47 McCain, 42 Obama
5/16-18: 40 McCain, 48 Obama
Virginia:
SUSA:
4/11-13: 52 McCain, 44 Obama
5/16-18: 42 McCain, 49 Obama
Missouri:
SUSA:
3/14-16: 53 McCain, 39 Obama
5/16-18: 48 McCain, 45 Obama
There goes another Clinton talking point. Going off the Pollster.com averages, Obama currently wins 283-255, losing the Kerry states of Michigan and New Hampshire, and winning the Bush states of Iowa, Indiana, New Mexico, Colorado, and Ohio. If you give him a tiny 3-point "primary boost", he picks up Virginia and Michigan, for a 313-225 lead.
Now Indiana would be tough to hold, so I wouldn't count on it. If Obama wins Indiana, he's won a crapload of other states. But other states not listed above look competitive (some surprisingly so) at this point in time: Florida is a single-digit race. New Hampshire is obviously a strong possibility, not just because of the poll quoted at the top of this post, but because the state itself is trending hard Blue. Missouri is also competitive and currently trending in Obama's direction. And aside from Obama's strength in the West, there may be some unconventional surprises in store for us. As DavidNYC noted this last weekend, Mississippi could be competitive if African American turnout outperforms and Obama can garner just 20 percent of the white vote. Our 2008 battleground map is far from being settled. And while it'll include all of the oldies we've come to know and love, there will be new battleground states on that map. This will be the most expansive battle in presidential politics in over a decade. If Bob Barr can run a serious Nader 2000-style race, able to consistently garner 5 percent across the board, we'll have over half the map in play.
Finally, some may wonder why Clinton's numbers (for what they're worth) are better in some of these battleground states. The answer is easy -- everyone has been ganging up on Obama, while Clinton has had a pass since her Bosnia fiasco. Now I don't mean a "pass" as in they've been nice to her. The press has written off her chances and been pretty brutal about it lately. I mean "pass" as in she hasn't been attacked personally or for her policies. The right-wing media has been bolstering her campaign in order to keep the Democratic Primary running as long as possible. That's why you have Terry McAuliffe praising Fox News to high heavens. And have you seen any "Hillary killed Vince Foster" emails being forwarded lately?
All that would change if Clinton were to magically win the nomination, and her numbers would suffer accordingly. What's amazing about Obama is that despite the full-court press from the right-wing media, from John McCain, from Hillary Clinton, from Bill Clinton, from the Clinton machine (and it's myriad Lanny Davids), and from a big chunk of the Democratic Party base itself, Obama is still uniting the party and gaining ground on those polls.
Once we can focus on McCain and knock him down a peg or three, things will look even better for us. The long primary season, as a whole, has been good for the party. But I can't wait for us to focus exclusively on McCain and his Bush Republican Party.
